It’s been just over a week since the all-new Lightning Lane Multi Pass skip-the-line system debuted, and opinions on the new system seem to be mixed. In this article, we’re going to put forward the premise that the new system is actually so bad that it might end up being a net positive for the average guest. We’ll start with some caveats to our argument, most notably that the system is still very young, but then we’ll get into what some of the net positives of what a poor skip-the-line offering could mean for your upcoming vacation to Walt Disney World.
Ok, if you’re looking for some of the Lightning Lane Multi Pass basics, check out our extensive coverage already by visiting our Lightning Lane Pass page and navigating through our review of the system, as well as some FAQs with screenshots of how to use the new offering.
Let’s start with the most obvious caveat – the system is brand new, and it seems like Disney is intentionally throttling it a bit to have a very controlled rollout during a slow(ish) summer. The busiest time of year seems like it’s right around the corner, and there is no better time to roll out a new skip-the-line system than when it really isn’t needed. Disney can collect a ton of user data during the middle of a relatively low-stakes environment. It’s possible, and even likely, that the system improves over time, but can it improve enough?
Building off of the caveat above, I’m surprised that we’re even able to see any weaknesses with Lightning Lane Multi Pass at the moment. In theory, the system is not being utilized nearly as much as it will be during the busiest times of the year. Unless artificial stress is being put on the system (throttling), there really shouldn’t be any difficulties to spot at the moment. That said, weaknesses in the system were visible from day one.
The biggest issue with the system right now is availability. That was immediately obvious on day one, and it really hasn’t improved to the point of being acceptable yet, much less “good”. Simply put, the in-the-field experience of opening up the My Disney Experience app at 2pm and seeing The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh sold out for the day and a posted wait time of 30 minutes makes you scratch your head.
There are probably a couple canary in the coal mine attractions that can indicate the overall health of the system. Attractions that I believe would qualify for that title would be considered middle-of-the-road offerings such as Alien Swirling Saucers, Mission: SPACE, Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin, or DINOSAUR. These types of attractions aren’t necessarily headliners, but they aren’t the bottom of the barrel either. To demonstrate how broken the Lightning Lane Multi Pass system is right now, here’s a look at availability graphs from thrill-data.
I’ll save you the squinting and just say this: all of these graphs tell the same story at all four Walt Disney World theme parks: availability is terrible and the Lightning Lane Multi Pass system, as is, is currently broken.
Mike, I don’t believe you, what does the graph actually show? I’m glad you asked. The graph shows the next available Lightning Lane return time for each attraction. As seen in the legend to the right in the screenshot below, the later in the day the return window is, the closer to “red” we get. A smooth green to red throughout the day indicates that the return window never got too far into the future.
As is the story with many of the tier two attractions such as Alien Swirling Saucers (above), or Mission: SPACE (below), Lightning Lane Multi Pass has essentially completely broken the way that guests had been using the Genie+ system, and in a substantial way.
Here’s another graph showing the “minute to return” at any given point during the day. Essentially, this is another way to measure same-day availability, this time by how far into the future the next available Lightning Lane window is. Here, you want to see as much green as possible, which indicates a shorter wait between when you book a Lightning Lane and when you can use it.
Some of the biggest losers are the tier-two attractions. Interestingly, Lightning Lane Single Pass attractions are also experiencing some weirdness, but that’s outside of the scope of this article. Attractions like Mission: SPACE and Spaceship Earth are seeing some lengthy “minutes to return” data when they were previously instant or short-wait returns under the Genie+ system.
As to the why of why the same-day availability is so broken, there is a clue in the graph. Starting on July 24th with the Lightning Lane Multi Pass system, Disney World allowed pre-booking of up to three attractions or experiences anywhere from 3-7+ days before guests arrive. Two things happened that impacted the same-day availability.
First, the ability to pre-book naturally meant that there would be less availability to start the day. With the old Genie+ system, everyone started booking on the morning of their visit starting at 7am, but not a minute before. That’s why there is a nice straight vertical line on the bottom two-thirds of the graph above.
The second thing that impacts same-day availability, and this is a big one, is the ability for guests to hold up to three Lightning Lane Multi Pass experiences at a time. With the old Genie+ system, and even the FastPass+ system before it, guests typically would hold one skip-the-line entitlement at a time on the day of their visit. Power users of the Genie+ system could use a technique colloquially termed “stacking”, but even that wasn’t without its tradeoffs.
Now, everyone is encouraged to hold onto three Lightning Lane experiences at a time, with the My Disney Experience app loudly declaring when you have the option to choose another experience. Actually, for as much as the system itself is broken right now, user experience updates to the My Disney Experience app are downright phenomenal. Lightning Lane Multi Pass is a super simple feature to use, and there are smart updates found throughout the app to support an easier day at the parks.
Before we get to why the Lightning Lane Multi Pass negatives might be a good thing, we’ll also note that the current struggles of the system are not a bug, they’re a feature. Yes, it’s probably worse right now than Disney World wants it to be, but it was always going to be worse than the Genie+ system. This is, essentially, how Disney World wants the system to work. Disney wants guests to pre-plan before they arrive so they can spend less time looking at their phones in the parks and more time having fun. That means that you will get your “wins” before you even step foot on Walt Disney World property, and experience fewer “wins” on the day of your visit.
Also, the Genie+ system wasn’t perfect. Actually, the premise of purchasing Genie+ was a little bit crazy, if I’m honest. When purchasing Genie+, you weren’t actually buying a skip-the-line entitlement. Instead, you were buying the ability to try and secure a skip-the-line entitlement. That wasn’t great. Now, with Lightning Lane Multi Pass, you know exactly what you’re purchasing and which attractions you’ll skip the line at first before you check out.
Ok, so why is the (currently) broken Lightning Lane Multi Pass system a good thing? This might seem like a stretch, but stay with me here. I believe that once people get a chance to use it and experience it in the parks with the current availability issues, fewer people will end up (re)buying into the system as it is currently built. Power users of the old Genie+ system will absolutely find the current Lightning Lane Multi Pass system less valuable, and even the casual visitor might elect to shift their attention to touring plan strategies instead of simply buying their way onto rides with such poor availability.
Furthermore, it’s entirely possible, and even likely, that guests who do use the system are walking out of the park with unused Lightning Lane Passes in their “backpack”. The system encourages you to book whatever you can get and fill up your “backpack” of three experiences, so I would be willing to bet that there are a ton of unused skip-the-line passes in the afternoons and evenings as people start to leave the parks.
All that adds up to one very positive thing right now: fewer guests in the Lightning Lane lines. I would be willing to bet that there are fewer people entering the Lightning Lane lines than there were this past Spring (per capita) and that the trend will continue during non-peak times. That will translate to lower actual standby wait times, even if we don’t see an immediate shift in posted standby wait times. In short, the average guest will likely have a better standby queue experience with a lower impact from Lightning Lane. We’ll put that to the test with some in-park reporting in the coming weeks and months.
Even if guests continue to purchase Lightning Lane Multi Pass at a decent clip, the ability to hold three experiences at a time will likely continue to translate to unused passes or inefficient distribution until Disney starts to override the current allocation figures. That will also have a positive impact on standby queues in the near term, and perhaps even the long term depending on how quickly Disney World is able to react.
As always, keep checking back with us here at BlogMickey.com as we continue to bring you the latest news, photos, and info from around the Disney Parks!
You’re describing a scenario where Disney makes LESS money off each guest, as less people purchase lightning lanes, and stand by lines therefore speed up, making lightning lanes purchases seem even more unnecessary. Disney won’t let that happen. Disney is ALL about draining every last dollar out of each guests pocket, and continuing to get maximum dollar for minimum reward. Maximum magic be damned, Walt’s spinning in his grave.