It’s a busy weekend at Walt Disney World as some northeastern schools finish up their winter/early Spring Break and it’s sparking a discussion about Walt Disney World capacity. In this post, we wanted to create a single space where we can reference what “capacity” really is, and what it isn’t. Let’s discuss.
Current Walt Disney World Capacity Limits
UPDATE (7/24/2021): With Walt Disney World continuing to increase capacity, we believe that overall capacity is at or near 50%. Disney has not released an official capacity limit since the announcement in the May update below.
UPDATE (5/13/2021): Walt Disney World has announced that they have increased their capacity limits beyond 35% and will continue to do so as they gradually reduce physical distancing requirements in the coming weeks. Disney did not give an exact capacity figure, so we will continue to use 35% in our article below to keep numbers and explanations consistent.
Capacity vs Attendance
It’s important to note that prior to COVID-19, Disney World only hits capacity on a handful of days during the year. Reliably, New Years Eve and some days during Christmas would see the parks enter a phased or complete closure at some point during the day. When the theme parks would hit capacity prior to COVID-19, that would represent that there simply wasn’t enough space in the theme park to safely let more guests in.
Disney does not release capacity limitations, but most estimates put Magic Kingdom capacity anywhere from 85,000 up to 100,000 guests at a time before the park is closed to all new guests. If you’ve been inside the Disney World theme parks when they’ve reached full, pre-pandemic capacity, you know how busy it can be. Let’s use 100,000 as the Magic Kingdom capacity because it’s a round number.
According to TEA estimates, Magic Kingdom welcomed 20,963,000 guests in 2019, an average of 57,433 guests per day. That means that in a year where Magic Kingdom was the most visited theme park in the entire world, it operated at roughly 57% capacity on an average day. Let me be clear, Magic Kingdom is the busiest theme park in the known universe and it was just over half full on an average day.
If we were to apply the figures used above, Disney World would currently be accepting up to 35,000 guests per day into Walt Disney World compared to a pre-pandemic average of just over 57,000 guests per day.
So, going back to attendance versus capacity – Disney World is able to operate at 35% of their total capacity, but that translates to roughly 61% of their average daily attendance.
Feels Crowded
If Disney is currently operating at 61% of their average daily 2019 attendance, shouldn’t the parks be less crowded? Not necessarily.
With physical distancing, essentially no entertainment, fewer dining options, and less experiences, crowds are a bit more condensed than they normally would be. Physically distanced queues are spilling out into walkways or being temporarily closed, forcing guests to the other limited offerings. Now, that’s not to say that there are only 5 things to do in a theme park, but by closing show theaters such as Monsters Inc. Laugh Floor to use it as a queue for Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin simply steals capacity from something that would otherwise host a lot of guests. Over at Disney’s Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom, other theaters sit empty or are utilized as physically distanced Cast breakrooms – unable to be used to disperse guests.
Also, on-ride capacity continues to be limited by physical distancing. Some attractions like Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway have received plexiglass on the ride vehicle to increase capacity, but other attractions like Na’vi River Journey or Pirates of the Caribbean continue to see astronomical wait times because Disney isn’t able to load every row or seat.
Please Fill in All Available Space
One thing to consider is that, as we just discussed, there are still some restaurants, shops, and entertainment venues that remain closed. When those locations open, Disney will be able to increase their effective capacity.
For example, let’s consider some currently closed theaters around Disney’s Hollywood Studios. If Disney’s Hollywood Studios has a total, (hypothetical) maximum capacity of 50,000 people, that would mean that roughly 17,500 people can visit on any given day at 35% capacity.
Now, let’s consider that a few theaters are still closed:
- Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular – 2,100 guests
- Theater of the Stars – 1,500 guests
- Fantasmic Theater – 8,000 guests (not counting standing)
Even if Disney is only able to operate those theaters at 25% of their maximum capacity, that would equate to an extra 2,900 guests that Disney would be able to fit into Disney’s Hollywood Studios on a daily basis. That would allow Disney to bump their capacity to 40% without opening any additional shops or restaurants – all while still technically allowing for 6′ physical distancing.
It’s important to remember that a capacity percentage from Disney isn’t the primary factor that limits how many guests are able to visit. That is, if Disney opens up these new spaces, they aren’t going to just keep the total number of guests at 35% of maximum capacity. Remember, Disney is not limited by any government mandates to only allow x amount of people in. Rather, Disney will fill in all the available space they have in a theme park while still allowing for the 6′ physical distancing. That means that as they open up more square footage, they will be able to fit more guests into the theme park. The resulting capacity “limit” will then increase because it is measured against a concrete maximum fire marshal safe operating limit.
Of course, these numbers are hypothetical, but you can see how Disney would be able to get more guests into the theme parks this summer and into the fall even without a huge breakthrough on the vaccine front.
Eyeing an Increase
Of course, with what seems like promising news on the COVID-19 vaccine front, Disney will likely be looking to further increase their theme park capacity limits this summer.
The biggest recommendation that Disney executives have cited when considering capacity at the Walt Disney World theme parks has been the 6′ physical distancing recommendation by the CDC:
In fact, Walt Disney world, which was at a 25% capacity constraint which was our industrial engineering estimates to keep 6 foot social distancing, now has been able to increase to 35% of capacity. So, almost a 50% increase in the number of guests that we can allow in, and still adhere to the local guidelines and the guidelines that are stipulated by the CDC with the 6 foot social distancing.
If the CDC were to drop the physical distancing recommendation following a successful vaccination event over the next few months, Disney could be going into their 50th Anniversary Celebration in October with the ability to let a lot more guests into the theme parks.
In their recent update on “The World’s Most Magical Celebration”, Disney didn’t offer any news on the many new attractions and experiences previously promised to debut before October. It’s likely that Disney only announced what they knew that they could deliver on – projections on park icons and new costumes for Mickey and Minnie – while still holding out hope that there will be a relaxation of physical distancing recommendations between now and October.
As for right now, it seems like we’re in a bit of a waiting game to see how the COVID-19 landscape changes over the next few months.
As always, keep checking back with us here at BlogMickey.com as we continue to bring you the latest news, photos, and info from around the Disney Parks!
It’ll be interesting to see what gives Disney the push to eventually let everyone back in the parks, will they rely on the vaccines, the removal of the 6ft guidelines or something else? Also, a point to add which may not be as important now, is that when the parks first reopened, the demand was not there so the 25% capacity was likely a safe bet instead of having a high capacity limit and no one visiting, which would’ve looked bad. I’ll keep crossing my fingers that we can eventually receive something more substantial for the 50th anniversary though!
Another difficulty is that “capacity” can be used in the theme park world as both “total number of people allowed in a park at one time” and also “the number of guests a particular attraction can handle in a given time period.” You seem to assume that the 35% number is fixed, based on the pre-COVID number for the former. Has this been confirmed? I would’ve guessed that changes to increase capacity on particular rides (e.g., adding plexiglass) are made in part to allow Disney increase the total number of people allowed in the park and not just to reduce wait times–though I can’t really think of how they would calculate a capacity limit based on total ride capacity (it’s obviously not as simple as taking 35% of the total the hourly capacities for each attraction in a park, or else wait times would be much lower than they are currently).
This is a very informative article. Thank you.
They need Fast Pass back desperately to decrease ride wait times. Universal is still able to do their Express Pass & there was no good reason Disney can’t either. I was there in August 2020 and it was doable in the heat with the masks because the lines were non-existent. But the think people are going to wait and these hour or longer lines in the summertime heat sun with masks, well that’s going to be a big problem…
Of course your assumptions are premised on the fact that “100,000 is a round number” whereas capacity could well be 85,000 thus making the parks busier than your article suggests, with an average attendance at 67% of total capacity.
Yep, that’s entirely possible! While the actual figures could differ from what we proposed, we hope that we were able to effectively illustrate the point that 35% of maximum capacity is not the same as 35% of an average day – which is what many people assume is the case
Wait. 95 humidity standing in line for over a hour with a mask on. And some kids. Trying to keep 6 feet away. Joke. If you are outside. No mask. This is getting way out of control. We are all under the government control right now. And even if you get the vaccine nothing has changed and if you listen the the fuicca dr. Whatever his name is. You will be wearing masks for the next 2 years. By thought if you want to wear one go ahead. If it makes you feels safe. More power to you. But then you have the good doers. That will
Say it doesn’t bother me to wear a mask for hours in the hot sun.
Refuse to spend my money with the socially woke mouse. I used to enjoy their product but they have gotten out of hand, and to charge full price when you have to make a reservation to get into a store to buy a t shirt? They have become to ” diverse” for me. I am not phobic or prejudice but they are destroying the fun
This is very informative. I’ve seen some other consent sections freaking out about how the parks don’t look only 1/3 full, and I was assuming that they meant 1/3 of maximin possible capacity, not 1/3 of an average day. I imagine the sharp decrease in new COVID cases over the past month makes it very likely that things could be back to normal by May. That is if Dr Faucci and the CDC can let us move on with life, which in Dr Faucci’s car didn’t seem likely