Wall Street expects Disney Experiences to cross $10 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 when Disney reports results on Tuesday, November 17th. Analyst estimates call for growth in park tickets, food and merchandise, and especially cruises. The headline number deserves an asterisk, though, because this quarter has an extra week that last year’s quarter did not. Here’s what we’re looking for headed into next week’s earnings call.
Wall Street Estimates for Disney Experiences in Fiscal Q4 2026
IN THIS ARTICLE:
- Analyst revenue estimates for Disney Experiences, including parks, resorts and cruises
- How the extra week in Disney’s fiscal calendar affects the growth numbers
- Company-wide expectations ahead of the November 17th report
Disney reports its full fiscal 2026 results this week, and analysts have already published their expectations for the final quarter. Zacks Equity Research published the consensus estimates for Disney’s key business lines recently. As has been the case in recent years, the parks side of the company carries a big share of those expectations. Analysts forecast growth in every Experiences line item.
Analysts expect Experiences revenue of $10.01 billion for the quarter, up 14.2% from the same quarter last year. That would beat the 10% growth the division posted in the third quarter, when Disney Experiences brought in just under $10 billion and grew operating income 20%. Experiences covers the theme parks, resorts, and Disney Cruise Line, along with most of consumer products until that business moves to Entertainment in fiscal 2027. Here is how analysts expect the individual lines to shake out:
- Theme park admissions: $3.07 billion, up 13.6%
- Parks and experiences merchandise, food and beverage: $2.33 billion, up 12.8%
- Resorts and vacations: $2.88 billion, up 27.5%
- Merchandise licensing and retail: $1.28 billion, up 10.9%
- Parks licensing and other: $645.72 million, up 10.4%
Resorts and vacations is the line to watch, and the cruise line likely explains most of it. In the third quarter, Disney credited additional passenger cruise days for most of the 17% growth in that line item. The Disney Destiny and Disney Adventure gave the fleet roughly 50% more stateroom capacity than a year earlier. Analysts expect that boost to show up again.
The food, drink and merchandise estimate is also worth a look. Growth of nearly 13% there would suggest analysts expect guests to keep spending once they are inside the gates. Disney recently increased prices on food and beverage items throughout the theme parks, but that was only by a few percentage points on average. A 13% bump would have to include more guest purchasing and not just price increases.
Admissions growth looks more modest by comparison, but it still asks a lot. Domestic park attendance grew 3% in the third quarter, and per capita spending grew 4%. A 13.6% jump in admissions would need more than extra guests at the turnstiles.
The Extra Week Behind the Growth
Disney’s fiscal 2026 has 53 weeks, and the extra week falls in the fourth quarter. That gives this quarter 14 weeks against 13 in the same quarter of fiscal 2025, and every estimate above compares against the shorter quarter from last year. Disney leaves that week out of its own guidance. In August, the company said Experiences operating income growth should come in at the high end of its high-single-digit guidance for the full year, excluding the extra week.
Here is our rough math. If that extra week performed like an average week, it would account for nearly 8 points of growth by itself. Take it out, and the 14.2% estimate shrinks to something closer to 6% underlying growth. That is still healthy for a business this size, but it is slower than the 10% revenue growth the division reported in the third quarter. A 14% headline on November 17th would not necessarily mean the parks business is speeding up.
Profit is harder to call. Third-quarter operating income growth included about four points from a roughly $100 million tariff refund, and Disney cautioned that more refunds should be small. Disney also expected softness at its Asia parks to continue into the fourth quarter, after international operating income fell 13% in the third.
The Zacks breakdown includes no operating income estimate for Experiences. Experiences posted a record $1.9 billion in fourth-quarter operating income a year ago.
Company-Wide Expectations
Zooming out to the whole company, analysts are looking for earnings of $1.67 per share, up 50.5% from a year ago, on $25.26 billion in revenue. The consensus earnings estimate rose 1.3% over the past month. Entertainment is expected to grow 11.5% to $11.38 billion, and Sports 9.1% to $4.34 billion. Experiences is still the biggest growth story of the group.
Investors seem to be expecting a good quarter already. Disney shares returned 9.8% over the past month, while the S&P 500 fell 2.4% in that time, and that raises the bar for Disney to impress. The results also arrive two weeks after a report that Disney plans thousands of new job cuts with a 20% savings target under CEO Josh D’Amaro.
Disney will release results before the market opens on November 17th. The earnings webcast starts at 8:30am ET, as we reported when Disney set the date for its full fiscal 2026 earnings report.
Keep Reading
- Get the full breakdown of Disney Experiences’ fiscal Q3 results, including cruise growth and the Consumer Products shift.
- See why Disney reported “very strong attendance” at Walt Disney World in August and took a shot at Universal.
- Compare Disney’s results with its biggest Orlando rival after Comcast said Universal theme parks profit fell 17% in Q3.
As always, keep checking back with us here at BlogMickey.com as we continue to bring you the latest news, photos, and info from around the Disney Parks!