The big news of the day is that the Newsom administration has publicized their reopening guidelines for theme parks. Despite public pressure, a return to the negotiating table, and statements from local health officials, Newsom has decided that large theme parks such as Disneyland will be allowed to reopen in the yellow “minimal” tier in the Blueprint for a Safer Economy plan.

When asked when Disneyland and other major theme parks would be able to reopen, California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly admitted that there is no “crystal ball” and that he has “no idea when Orange County will enter the yellow tier”. That’s the obvious part. Ghaly went on to point out that San Francisco county has just moved into the yellow tier and that should give Orange County and others a bit of hope as it relates to large theme parks reopening. Ghlay did note that San Francisco county was aided by the Accelerated Health Equity Metric. That said, Orange County has made no measurable progress towards weekly requirements to qualify for the Accelerated Health Equity Metric, according to state data. Orange County also has more than 3.5 times as large a population as San Fransico county, a significant metric when it comes to determining the feasibility of movement within the plan outlined below.

According to the latest data released by the state today, Orange County remains in the red “substantial” tier and has spent zero weeks at required levels to be considered for the orange “moderate” tier, much less the yellow “minimal” tier required to reopen Disneyland at a 25% capacity. Orange County has been in the red tier since September 7th and has not moved out of that tier since then. Orange County has been able to keep their positivity rate (3.2%) in the orange “moderate” tier, but their adjusted cases rate (4.6) is still in the red “substantial” tier.  

So, how does the Blueprint for a Safer Economy tier system effect a Disneyland reopening date, or even a timeline?

• At a minimum, counties must remain in a tier for at least 3 weeks before moving forward. Orange County has been in the red tier since the blueprint existed in early September, so that criteria is met.
• To move forward, a county must meet the next tier’s criteria for two consecutive weeks. Orange County has not met the lower tier criteria for one week, let alone two, so that puts us at a two-week minimum (Nov. 3rd).
• If Orange County is able to hit the orange tier for the next two weeks, they’d need to be in it another week before they are a candidate for a tier movement (Nov. 10).
• From there, they would need to hit the yellow tier for two consecutive weeks, plus a third week to meet criteria.
• That means that Disneyland could open at the soonest on December 1st…if everything goes right and there aren’t any setbacks.

Now, once we consider the criteria to move to the yellow tier, Orange County would need to cut their positivity rate by at least 1.2% and have less than 1 daily new case per 100,000 residents. As of today, Orange County has more than 4.5 times too many daily cases on average per 100,000.

Assuming a December opening would assume perfection from Orange County, and that’s simply unreasonable. Even the executive director of the California Amusement Parks and Attractions (CAPA) said that the plan amounts to a “Keep Theme Parks Closed Indefinitely” Plan.

Disneyland President Ken Potrock called the plan “unworkable” and said that the theme parks would be “shuttered for the foreseeable future”.

As of right now, unless there is an adjustment to the posted guidelines, or there is perfection as far as COVID-19 management is concerned in a county of 3.2 million people, Disneyland will remain closed well into 2021.

As always, keep checking back with us here at BlogMickey.com as we continue to bring you the latest news, photos, and info from around the Disney Parks!