With all eyes on Walt Disney World’s reopening this past week, perhaps the most obvious change from before the pandemic struck isn’t the physical distancing markers or plexiglass barriers in the queue, but the lack of crowds in the parks. Sure, it can be a bit jarring to see the narrow plexiglass hallways in the Big Thunder Mountain Railroad queue, or the face shields that Cast Members are wearing in Pandora – The World of Avatar to protect themselves from guests and not the fictional harmful atmosphere, but it’s the empty shots of Main Street USA or Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge that have seemed to catch the attention of social media. If the first week is anything to go by, we could be in for a slow summer at the Walt Disney World Resort.

There is one concept that has inspired this article – Disney’s self-imposed capacity limitations, and the fact that guest demand isn’t meeting it right now. Unlike Shanghai Disneyland, we don’t know what limits Disney World has put on capacity for the theme parks, but estimates on the ground range from 15% to 25% of a normal park operation. At Shanghai Disneyland, the government imposed a 30% capacity limit on the park, or around 30,000 guests. A cursory glance at the Shanghai Disneyland calendar shows no sold out dates, indicating that they aren’t hitting their government mandated capacity limitations.

So, what do we mean when we say Disney’s self-imposed capacity limitations? First, there are no publicly available government mandates that would limit the capacity of a Walt Disney World theme park. That means that any limitations put in place are self-imposed, and there are limits put in place. Disney has implemented a new reservation system called the Disney Park Pass. As a requirement to enter any Disney World theme park, a guest must hold both a valid ticket as well as a Disney Park Pass reservation for the theme park they want to visit. By implementing this system, Disney is able to limit the amount of guests who can visit a theme park on any given day, giving Disney the ability to throttle attendance up or down based on the unique constraints of each park and the planned physical distancing. More on how the Disney Park Pass reservation system plays into all of this in a bit.

Statistically, Thrill-Data.com is tracking Walt Disney World wait times that are down anywhere from 41% to a whopping 81% at the Walt Disney World theme parks last week when compared to the all-time, park-wide averages. Flight of Passage, an attraction that typically has an average wait time north of two hours has seen a 92% drop in posted wait times versus the all-time average. Keep in mind that all attractions have social distancing procedures in place that should, theoretically, increase the wait times. From leaving a seat or two empty between parties like on Flight of Passage, to only allowing a single party to pilot the Millennium Falcon (even if it’s just a party of one), social distancing measures only serve to decrease efficiency for attraction and increase wait times.

Beyond the statistics, a simple observation of walkways around the Disney theme parks would serve as a red flag for the greatly reduced demand for an escape to Disney World right now. Here’s a look at Main Street USA during the middle of a weekday, a typical representation for what its like to visit Disney World right now.

At Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, Disney’s billion-dollar land in Hollywood Studios, an empty shot of the Millennium Falcon during the daytime isn’t the white whale that it used to be. Wait times to pilot the Millennium Falcon are down 66%, with social distancing measures in place that don’t allow the combination of parties in the cockpit, something that should theoretically increase the wait times. Across the board, wait times are down about 47% at Disney’s Hollywood Studios versus their all-time average.

That’s not to say that crowds don’t form. Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway, Disney World’s newest attraction, is pulling some of the longest wait times of the past week, with crowds flocking to the attraction first thing in the morning.

Of course, the demand for Disney’s Hollywood Studios in general is seemingly the highest of any of the Walt Disney World theme parks, with the park boasting a lineup of attractions such as Rise of the Resistance, Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway, and Slinky Dog Dash. That’s not even mentioning Hollywood Studios classics such as Tower of Terror and Toy Story Mania.

Even with the high demand and less efficient loading for Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway right now, wait times for the attraction are down nearly 40% compared to the two weeks that the attraction was operational before the theme parks were shuttered.

We could go on and on with observations about low waits at the Walt Disney World theme parks (Peter Pan’s Flight is a walk on?!), but let’s tie this article together and talk about demand as it relates to the Disney Park Pass theme park reservation system.

As part of the Disney Park Pass theme park reservation system, Disney has published an availability calendar. While we acknowledge that the calendar might not be precisely accurate at all times in our Disney Park Pass guide, it is accurate enough to draw some broad conclusions.

First, there are very few sold out dates for non-Annual Passholders. Disney rolled out the theme park reservation system slowly, while putting a halt to new ticket sales. This would not only ensure that existing ticket holders would get a first stab at reserving a visit to the parks, but also that the system wouldn’t be overwhelmed and crash (even though it had some glitches). While Disney officially said that 2020 tickets would go on sale “later this summer”, they ended up opening up new ticket sales before the parks even reopened. Even with new ticket sales and new hotel reservations wide open, there are zero completely full dates on the Disney Park Pass reservation calendar for those ticket types.

Our second broad generalization is that Disney is slowly starting to realize that it will need Annual Passholders this summer. Initially, we saw the month of July completely fill up for Annual Passholder theme park reservations, a fact that didn’t sit well with Annual Passholders who noticed that other ticket types weren’t selling out and leaving park-wide capacity on the table. On July 16th, Disney acknowledged that there simply wasn’t the demand for regular tickets and resort guests by adding more availability for Annual Passholders without increasing park attendance. Of course, the logical conclusion here is that Disney reallocated park pass availability from the regular tickets and resort guest tickets to Annual Passholders to have a net zero impact on the theme park capacity. Even with the expanded park pass availability for Annual Passholders, we only see two days where all four theme parks are completely sold out, both on a Saturday, and both with availability for other ticket types.

Finally, looking into the future, there doesn’t seem to be any demand more than a week or so out when it comes to regular ticket types and resort guests. Other than Annual Passholders, the general public doesn’t seem to be flocking back to the Disney World theme parks this summer. We’ll soon see Hollywood Studios “sell out” for Annual Passholders for the month of August, but the entire month is open for the other ticket types. Perhaps Disney will reallocate even more availability to Annual Passholders as we continue into the slow summer.

If we look at the total picture right now – wait times, park pass availability, and crowd levels – it’s impossible to draw a conclusion other than we’re in for a slow summer at Walt Disney World. If guest demand isn’t hitting the lowest possible capacity restrictions, it’s unlikely that there will somehow be more demand in the coming weeks and months even if Disney expands park capacity. Let’s be clear, this is a good thing. We’re still in the middle of a pandemic that is sweeping the nation and Florida continues to be the epicenter for COVID-19. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from getting sick. Disney World has posted COVID-19 warnings just about everywhere that you look in the theme parks and resorts. Disney has implemented many restrictive policies such as the much-discussed Disney Park Pass system, mandatory face masks, and a pause on Annual Pass sales and upgrades, all in an effort to keep park attendance low. In our “first impressions” article, we even say that right now is not the time to visit Walt Disney World if you are looking for a once-in-a-lifetime trip or even a once-every-few-years vacation.

Of course, the theme parks will have to figure out a way to remain profitable in this low demand environment. There are still plenty of Cast Members who have not been called back to work and with tight financials, the threat of layoffs is a real one. There are no easy answers and with guests not visiting for a wide variety of reasons, we hope that the reopening of the theme parks is able to be a positive contribution to the net profits of the company, and sustainable in the short to medium term.

As Disney slowly ramps up its operations, the head of the Disney Parks is prepared to operate in this new normal. Josh D’Amaro, the Disney Parks Chairman notes that Disney World is operating in a “new normal” even with the concerning COVID-19 numbers that we’re seeing in Florida right now. D’Amaro noted in a CNN interview that “what’s happening outside of the gates of Walt Disney World is our new world”. Disney is seemingly looking at the COVID-19 situation as a long play, with D’Amaro noting that “the world is a different place, but we feel really prepared to operate in this new environment that we’re in”. In fairness, Disney has implemented many well-thought-out policies and procedures that likely make touring the theme parks a safer proposition than going out for groceries.

At BlogMickey.com, we want to see the crowds return when it is safe. As nice as it might be to experience low wait times and low crowds through this summer for those who are able to visit, there are so many other Disney fans that aren’t able to experience the magic and memories. We’ll continue to cover the Disney World theme parks in this new normal over the coming weeks and months, bringing you photos, videos, and news from the parks to help you stay connected in any way possible.