The Orange County Comptroller has released May 2023 figures for the Tourist Development Tax (TDT) collection and the downward trend of tourism in the area appears to be continuing. May 2023 recorded a 6.7% decrease in TDT collection compared to May 2022, the second consecutive month where a year-over-year decrease was recorded. The 6.7% YoY decrease is an acceleration of the YoY decrease in April 2023 of 3.5%.

While our articles about lower-than-expected crowds for the Fourth of July and Memorial Day are Disney-specific, our coverage of the TDT applies to the Central Florida tourism industry as a whole. According to the TDT report, Orlando’s hotel average daily rate in May 2023 was $186, which is down from $221 in April 2023, but up 3.2% over the May 2022 average daily rate of $180.

The Tourist Development Tax is a tax on the total consideration that must be paid by the guest for the rental or lease of living quarters and accommodations in a hotel, motel, rooming house, trailer camp, condominium, apartment, multiple-unit structure, mobile home, trailer, single-family home, or any other sleeping accommodations that are rented for a period of six months or less.

While there are natural visitation ebbs and flows throughout the year, the year-over-year decline is notable as Disney World signals that they expect a “slow” summer. Here’s a look at the TDT collection amounts dating back to October 2019, with May highlighted.

This most recent report did not mention the leisure hotel segment. Instead, the report said that May 2022 was the first month since February 2021 that saw a decline in the convention hotel segment.

On the Disney Parks side of things, there are a few canaries in the proverbial coal mine that would suggest that we could see a “slow” summer at Walt Disney World. Now, it’s important to caveat that “slow” in 2023 will mean something completely different than “slow” in 2020 or 2021. Even the graph above shows just how “slow” the post-COVID-shutdown months were in Central Florida. As for this summer, Disney has resumed sales of Annual Passes (and not sold out), the Disney Park Pass theme park reservation availability calendar is wide open, and there are a number of hotel and ticket offers that should entice visitation. Disney executives have previously talked about a “moderation” in crowds and demand following Disney World’s 18-month 50th Anniversary that ran from October 2021 through March 2023.

If we had to guess, we’d expect to see either a stagnation or a slide in TDT collections through the end of the year, with any significant economic downturn amplifying that. At Walt Disney World, there really aren’t any huge events on the horizon that would entice visitors. Outside of the typical Halloween and Christmas seasonal events, the Disney100 celebration can’t possibly be on any tourist’s radar, and there aren’t any significant attraction openings planned for the remainder of the year unless you count the long-overdue completion of The Pit at EPCOT.

That said, there are still some wonderful reasons to visit Walt Disney World if you haven’t been in the past couple of years. Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind is an excellent attraction that is just over a year old, and TRON Lightcycle Run has created some new energy at Magic Kingdom. Over the past few years, we’ve seen that summer has not been the crush of crowds that conventional wisdom would suggest. When you add a possible slower-than-normal summer to the already moderating crowds, you might have a recipe for some success between now and the holiday season at Walt Disney World.

As always, keep checking back with us here at BlogMickey.com as we continue to bring you the latest news, photos, and info from around the Disney Parks!