In a recent Q&A at the Bank of America media conference, Universal Destinations & Experiences CEO Mark Woodbury pulled back the curtain a bit on the early performance of Epic Universe. As you may know, Universal Epic Universe opened back in late May in Orlando. Universal’s third theme park was a move to turn Universal Orlando Resort into a weeklong destination. With three theme parks and an immersive water park, Universal makes a strong case. While there was plenty of chatter leading up to the opening of Epic Universe, the question of performance was ready to be answered this Summer. Here’s what Woodbury had to say.
Universal Epic Universe Taking Market Share from Walt Disney World
When asked about the future of the Universal Orlando Resort, Woodbury outlined the work ahead and also shared some interesting early figures following the opening of Epic Universe. In short, Woodbury said that Universal will continue to focus on growing its theme parks. Woodbury said that the theme park business is driven by creating a pipeline of great product, selling it with breakthrough marketing, and then delivering with world-class service.
Beyond creating great products, Universal is focused on driving awareness of Epic Universe and its upcoming theme park projects, as well as grabbing a share of the voice. Most importantly, Woodbury says that he thinks that Universal Orlando will not only continue to grow visitation to the Central Florida tourism market, but that Universal is primed to take market share in the process.
In fact, Woodbury said that Universal is already seeing “share shift” in the first two or three months of Epic Universe operations.
Yes, so when you look at what we’re focused on, this business is really driven by creating a pipeline of great product, telling the world that you have it with really breakthrough marketing, and then maybe most importantly, delivering it with world-class service across the board to create that awareness, create that intent to revisit, and that’s of course number one. Continue to drive that.
Two, get the message out to the outer US. Continue to drive awareness, continue to drive share voice, and continue to drive business to the marketplace. And we think that we’ll see — you will continue to grow visitation to the market as well as take market share in the process.
We think we’ll drive incremental visits to the market and we’ll drive share shift and we’re seeing that in the first two-three months of operations.
Woodbury then directly set his sights on Walt Disney World. He noted that Disney has a number of projects in the works, but that Universal is well-positioned to take market share despite what Disney has in the works.
I think that we have a — we’re in a really strong position to continue to drive incremental growth to the overall marketplace, to take share in the process of that.
Our chief competitor, Disney, is a strong competitor. They’re going to be investing pretty heavily in the market too. I think it’s a case of all ships rise with the tide. We’ll both drive audience to the marketplace and we’ll be able to take our share of it.
Turning to some commentary, I think the discussion of market share is an interesting one. I’m not sure an early market share shift is entirely unexpected – it’s a brand new theme park, after all. In a Summer where Walt Disney World had very little new to offer, I wouldn’t be surprised by a market share shift to Universal.
That said, let’s do a brief exercise to see what could be happening. First, we’ll use 5 tourists as our full market. We’ll say that pre-Epic, Universal captured one of the five, and the other four went to Walt Disney World. When discussing market share, it’ll be interesting to see if Epic Universe brought a 6th person to Orlando, making the split 2-4 (Universal-Disney), or if Universal stole one from Disney, making the split 2-3. In both scenarios, Universal gained market share, but in the first scenario, Epic brought in a new tourist to Orlando, which could play into the “rising tide lifts all boats” scenario that both Disney and Universal executives have been talking about for months (if not longer).
Of course, a whole host of other examples and questions exist, too, as it relates to market share. I think that the market share argument will be in a state of flux for at least another year, if not longer. Epic Universe still has some growth opportunities as it relates to ticket strategies, which will be very interesting to watch play out.
Ultimately, what will be most interesting to track is whether Universal is able to hold some ground now that Epic Universe is open.
For context, let’s take a look at the past few years as it relates to attendance at Walt Disney World and Universal. The following table has been compiled from estimated attendance figures from the Themed Entertainment Association (TEA) – the accepted industry standard for attendance estimations.
As you can see below, Walt Disney World still holds the lion’s share of tourism, but park-by-park numbers have tightened up since the COVID-19 shutdowns. In fact, in 2022, the two Universal theme parks both had higher attendance than the Walt Disney World theme parks, excluding Magic Kingdom. In 2023 (the latest year with available data as of publish time), the Universal theme parks both experienced a 1 million visitor drop – pretty scary before a new theme park opens to potentially cannibalize that visitation further. Here are the numbers:
| Theme Park | 2019 (millions) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 20.96 | 12.69 | 17.13 | 17.72 |
| EPCOT | 12.44 | 7.75 | 10.00 | 11.98 |
| Disney’s Hollywood Studios | 11.48 | 8.59 | 10.90 | 10.30 |
| Animal Kingdom | 13.88 | 7.19 | 9.03 | 8.77 |
| Islands of Adventure | 10.38 | 9.08 | 11.03 | 10.00 |
| Universal Studios Florida | 10.92 | 8.99 | 10.75 | 9.75 |
Later this month, 2024 attendance estimates will be released. It will be interesting to see how the Universal theme parks stack up against 2023 as tourists possibly postpone their vacations in 2024 for the May 2025 grand opening of Epic Universe.
Long story short, the theme park war is on. According to Woodbury, Epic Universe is performing exactly like Universal had hoped, stealing some early market share during the opening Summer months. As ticket structures, discounts, and new offerings come online, it will be interesting to see where Epic Universe settles in. 2026 will be the first full calendar year that Universal Epic Universe will be open. Disney doesn’t have a lot of “new” to offer next year, with the Tropical Americas expansion planned to open in 2027. Epic Universe may come out of the gates swinging, but Walt Disney World will have a compelling lineup of new offerings starting in 2027, likely opening at a cadence of one new land per year for the next five years or so.
It’s a race for the tourist dollar and market share, but we theme park fans are the real winners.
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